Gold hits 2-wk high as Fed rate outlook weighs on dollar

20th March 2017

By: Reuters

  

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BENGALURU – Gold prices hit a two-week high on Monday as the dollar slumped to near 6-week lows after the US Federal Reserve's dovish outlook on the pace of rate increases this year continued to disappoint dollar bulls.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1 234.60/oz by 0735 GMT, after earlier touching $1 235.50/oz, its highest since March 6.

US gold futures gained 0.3% to $1 234.10.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.3% at 100.040, after hitting a low of 100.020, its worst since Feb. 7.

Gold prices have rebounded more than $35 from its low hit before the policy decision to boost rates last Wednesday, while the dollar has fallen 1.7% from its high of 101.71 hit the same day.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's cautious guidance last week has investors pricing in almost no chance of another rate rise at the next policy meeting in May, and is seen rising to around 50-50 for June.

"The market was geared for a hawkish FOMC and the Fed was really dovish. There was a lot of short-covering. People are now putting gold back on the plate and are more comfortable," a Hong Kong-based precious metals trader said.

"The dollar is weaker across the board ... It's pushing gold higher ... a pure technical buying."

Spot gold fell in the week to March 14 on firm expectations that the Fed would hike rates and as the dollar strengthened, but prices reversed, prompting traders to cover their short positions.

Money managers slashed their net long positions in gold by 44 058 lots to 49 835 lots during that week, the lowest since early January. Managed short positions rose by nearly 10 000 lots to 70 454.

"With concerns of a more hawkish Fed now easing, the outlook for gold looks a little bit more positive," ANZ analysts said in a note.

Markets are also looking ahead for a packed week of Fed messaging, with no less than nine different policy makers set to speak, including Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday.

Spot gold is expected to test a resistance at $1 237/oz, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1 243, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

Holdings of SPDR Gold, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.35% to 834.10 tonnes on Friday.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to $17.39/oz. Platinum was up 0.4% at $961.50, while palladium rose 0.1% to $773.

Edited by Reuters

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R/€ = 20.5811 Change: 0.2516
R/$ = 19.2948 Change: 0.1356
Au 2391.84 $/oz Change: 0.37
Pt 943.50 $/oz Change: 0.30